***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.9 17.0 -0.9 35.8 38.0 13.8 14.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.7 16.6 -0.9 32.8 37.4 13.7 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 15.5 16.0 17.3 -0.8 36.9 38.0 15.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.3 15.4 -0.2 51.6 48.5 11.2 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 12.0 13.3 15.7 -0.4 46.1 44.4 11.3 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.6 13.7 0.1 55.1 53.7 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 13.5 13.7 16.7 -1.1 29.9 34.7 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.9 13.5 -0.1 50.9 49.4 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 13.2 14.6 15.7 -0.4 45.1 43.9 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.3 14.2 -0.3 48.2 46.5 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.0 15.5 -0.2 52.1 48.5 12.6 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.4 14.5 -0.1 51.1 49.9 11.3 12.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.3 14.1 -0.2 49.5 48.5 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.2 15.2 -0.6 40.7 41.3 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.9 17.3 0.1 53.6 51.9 14.4 15.8 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.3 15.0 0.0 53.5 51.0 14.0 15.0 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.4 16.5 -0.7 35.5 40.0 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.2 13.5 -0.4 46.5 44.8 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.1 16.8 -0.7 38.2 39.8 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.7 11.5 -0.3 48.7 46.7 7.5 8.7 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.7 16.8 -0.7 39.6 40.8 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.5 16.8 -0.6 39.5 41.8 13.4 13.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.2 17.1 -0.4 44.3 44.1 13.1 14.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.1 15.3 -0.5 43.2 42.3 13.3 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.8 16.3 -0.6 45.9 42.8 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.5 13.5 -0.3 48.5 46.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.7 16.6 -0.7 39.2 40.7 13.2 14.9 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.3 16.1 0.0 54.1 51.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.0 12.8 -0.4 45.7 44.6 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.4 13.3 16.8 -1.0 30.8 35.9 13.7 15.3 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------