***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 14.7 14.4 16.7 -1.6 18.0 23.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 13.7 13.8 16.6 -1.5 20.2 22.7 14.8 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 16.6 16.2 17.0 -1.6 17.1 21.5 17.1 18.1 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 12.6 12.0 15.1 -0.9 31.2 33.2 12.3 14.4 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 12.7 12.7 15.5 -1.3 22.5 26.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.5 12.4 13.0 -0.8 31.0 33.4 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 14.0 13.9 16.7 -1.6 17.2 21.6 15.2 15.8 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 7.3 7.1 12.8 -1.3 23.1 25.3 8.0 8.7 10.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 13.6 13.7 15.4 -1.4 19.4 23.0 14.4 15.2 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 13.6 13.9 13.7 -1.3 20.3 23.8 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 13.6 13.4 15.3 -1.2 23.4 26.8 13.9 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 12.0 11.9 14.1 -1.2 25.7 27.7 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 12.8 12.5 13.9 -1.2 23.9 26.2 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 14.5 14.2 15.0 -1.4 16.5 22.2 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.8 15.9 17.3 -0.7 34.4 37.0 15.8 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.3 15.0 -0.8 32.3 34.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 14.9 15.5 16.6 -1.1 24.8 28.4 15.6 16.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 12.1 12.3 13.1 -1.4 20.6 23.0 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 14.4 14.5 16.8 -1.4 24.0 25.2 14.9 15.4 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 8.7 8.6 11.4 -1.2 24.4 26.4 8.9 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 13.5 13.4 16.5 -1.6 17.2 20.5 14.0 14.7 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 13.8 14.0 17.0 -1.0 26.6 29.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.0 14.2 17.1 -1.1 29.2 30.1 14.3 14.8 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 14.0 14.0 15.1 -1.5 20.2 22.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 14.1 14.4 16.1 -1.5 23.9 25.3 14.8 15.7 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 13.3 13.0 12.8 -1.4 20.4 23.6 13.8 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 14.3 14.5 16.4 -1.5 22.7 25.5 15.4 15.8 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.2 15.8 -0.7 35.1 36.9 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 11.5 11.2 12.4 -1.3 21.3 22.8 11.9 13.8 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 14.5 14.3 16.8 -1.7 16.6 20.7 15.3 15.7 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------