***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 51.4 42.8 32.6 77.9 48.7 41.1 24.1 44.0 55.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 25.1 35.0 33.3 83.5 50.3 41.8 23.8 35.0 52.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 50.1 40.4 33.8 82.1 50.2 41.0 31.3 40.3 62.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 37.8 55.7 33.1 84.4 55.2 44.6 38.3 52.6 70.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 45.2 43.0 31.3 84.8 54.6 44.3 20.7 39.8 49.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 28.7 43.1 33.4 80.4 50.1 42.5 28.1 43.0 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 24.9 37.1 33.0 84.4 53.0 42.3 21.6 34.6 43.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 51.1 64.4 33.0 80.9 50.3 41.4 52.5 64.3 85.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 42.6 38.9 31.4 80.1 53.8 42.8 27.6 36.4 47.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 34.2 49.1 35.0 78.9 50.4 41.4 35.5 48.9 59.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 25.8 47.2 30.7 88.3 55.9 45.0 22.9 37.3 51.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 25.7 43.7 28.5 85.5 54.2 43.3 30.9 38.8 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 28.2 39.9 28.3 82.9 51.9 40.8 28.2 38.5 51.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 36.1 52.6 40.6 80.0 48.1 39.9 42.6 53.4 64.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.1 34.8 28.9 88.2 59.7 46.8 14.5 21.8 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.7 47.2 29.6 86.8 53.9 43.3 33.6 43.6 49.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 27.4 43.6 33.1 81.8 48.5 41.5 29.1 43.7 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 34.1 44.1 38.0 75.9 48.0 40.0 32.5 45.1 53.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 27.8 42.7 33.9 83.4 50.1 41.9 23.8 42.6 63.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 40.3 52.7 38.2 77.6 44.0 38.8 41.9 57.0 73.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 42.1 31.9 31.5 78.9 53.3 41.8 22.6 30.5 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 33.5 43.8 34.5 80.8 48.6 41.0 33.4 45.2 59.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 32.0 51.9 34.2 81.9 51.7 41.9 24.7 51.2 65.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 59.5 54.0 36.6 78.9 50.2 40.7 34.7 53.8 68.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 23.7 36.1 33.2 75.7 49.7 40.9 24.4 36.2 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 20.9 28.8 24.6 81.9 52.5 43.3 21.6 28.0 39.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 26.7 37.8 33.6 75.6 48.3 40.7 28.6 40.1 60.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 36.8 35.1 30.0 84.4 56.3 45.1 21.7 32.0 38.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 51.7 68.6 39.4 76.5 46.6 39.0 55.8 74.7 103.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.2 39.5 32.8 82.0 50.5 41.2 24.0 39.3 47.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------