***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.6 9.6 98.3 68.1 50.8 0.9 2.8 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.5 8.4 86.4 64.0 50.3 1.8 4.0 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.3 9.4 91.0 62.6 49.0 2.3 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.1 21.8 10.2 99.8 68.9 52.5 5.8 17.4 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.2 16.8 9.4 92.6 67.4 51.8 3.1 9.4 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.3 12.2 100.9 66.6 51.5 5.7 8.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.2 15.0 8.6 93.2 67.5 50.7 1.2 5.1 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 25.0 29.5 10.6 94.7 64.9 52.0 10.4 19.7 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.7 17.6 9.7 90.3 65.9 52.1 3.6 10.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 14.0 11.1 90.9 64.7 51.7 3.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.4 19.1 9.5 99.2 69.4 53.3 3.5 11.0 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.7 20.9 9.5 100.8 69.4 53.0 5.6 9.4 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.9 19.5 10.1 96.2 68.6 49.7 3.6 10.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.5 13.4 10.8 84.5 61.1 49.9 2.7 6.2 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 11.1 9.1 106.6 71.4 51.8 1.2 4.6 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.6 14.4 9.5 97.7 70.1 52.7 5.5 9.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.2 15.1 9.0 95.5 68.1 51.5 1.7 4.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 16.5 11.7 86.5 63.6 49.5 5.1 11.6 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.7 8.5 84.9 61.9 50.1 1.3 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 21.5 12.0 86.0 59.7 48.2 8.8 15.3 28.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 9.7 93.3 65.6 51.1 3.4 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.6 12.7 9.3 90.9 65.3 51.9 3.4 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.9 8.6 84.5 61.3 50.9 1.9 4.4 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 15.5 10.6 87.1 63.9 51.1 2.6 8.3 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.9 10.5 99.8 67.1 50.3 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 13.8 9.0 98.4 67.9 52.0 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.1 11.7 10.1 99.9 67.7 51.0 1.7 3.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.3 17.8 9.5 97.4 69.4 52.0 2.5 6.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.0 26.5 11.9 87.6 62.3 48.7 11.9 19.5 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.4 9.0 8.3 83.8 62.5 49.4 1.4 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------