***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 8.4 5.9 50.9 52.3 42.1 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.9 7.8 77.1 60.3 47.1 3.2 7.8 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.0 6.4 55.0 52.1 43.0 2.7 7.0 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.9 4.1 40.5 54.4 41.0 3.1 7.2 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.4 8.2 3.8 37.9 51.8 39.7 3.1 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.1 5.6 6.9 64.2 58.0 45.3 2.8 4.6 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.1 7.7 74.7 58.9 47.8 3.9 6.6 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.4 5.0 46.6 52.8 41.4 5.5 14.5 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.1 8.1 4.7 41.6 49.5 40.8 5.8 8.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 12.0 5.4 44.3 50.3 40.2 5.7 12.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 7.6 3.2 34.5 50.3 38.7 3.5 7.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 10.3 3.5 39.8 52.6 41.2 2.1 9.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.6 3.9 42.4 54.1 38.4 2.9 7.0 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 12.9 8.3 56.4 48.6 41.4 7.5 13.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 4.9 3.2 3.7 44.1 58.2 42.0 0.3 2.5 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.6 6.4 3.3 36.9 52.3 39.2 2.0 5.6 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.4 8.1 79.3 58.6 48.3 5.4 8.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 8.5 6.4 47.6 49.7 39.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.0 7.6 72.6 58.4 46.3 5.7 8.4 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 16.0 7.0 57.2 51.2 40.8 7.9 16.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.5 6.4 5.1 44.2 50.6 41.5 3.2 6.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.7 7.8 72.7 55.0 45.8 8.3 13.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.9 12.7 7.1 62.8 54.7 44.2 5.7 11.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.2 10.4 6.7 50.6 49.7 41.5 6.3 10.6 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.2 4.8 40.2 50.5 39.6 1.8 6.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.2 4.2 54.6 59.1 45.3 0.5 5.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.2 5.8 47.8 51.3 40.9 1.5 10.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.0 7.7 3.9 41.4 56.2 40.4 1.7 6.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.4 17.4 7.2 52.4 49.4 40.3 7.9 17.5 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 9.6 7.2 67.8 57.6 45.1 4.0 8.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------