***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.7 5.1 10.7 87.1 63.2 47.9 0.0 1.5 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.5 10.1 8.7 75.5 60.7 43.5 2.1 4.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.4 11.9 10.8 90.3 63.9 44.4 0.8 5.1 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 15.5 11.6 101.6 68.0 46.0 1.7 9.9 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.5 14.1 12.1 113.7 71.7 44.3 0.7 3.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.5 9.8 81.7 57.6 42.8 0.8 9.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.1 10.5 8.8 78.9 60.2 45.3 0.7 4.4 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.2 22.8 11.5 102.0 64.5 42.5 3.7 15.3 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.5 12.3 11.0 102.0 66.3 43.3 0.5 3.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.6 13.2 12.0 99.9 64.6 42.2 1.8 6.2 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.0 12.4 12.6 120.4 70.5 45.3 2.3 4.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.3 9.2 10.5 109.8 68.1 44.2 1.7 5.4 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.7 12.7 10.0 109.1 68.9 42.6 0.6 3.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.7 14.1 11.2 79.7 57.8 39.2 3.7 9.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.6 9.6 10.9 101.9 69.9 46.9 0.4 1.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.8 12.0 11.2 113.4 69.5 45.3 0.9 4.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.1 8.2 72.8 58.3 42.8 3.4 11.0 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.8 11.6 11.5 85.4 58.5 40.0 1.4 7.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.9 9.3 78.5 60.8 42.9 3.0 9.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.6 16.5 12.1 93.2 60.6 41.8 8.6 12.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.5 11.1 99.7 67.4 45.6 0.7 6.7 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.9 8.1 66.7 54.8 39.3 4.1 9.8 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.4 10.1 83.8 61.3 42.6 1.5 6.8 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.0 11.9 10.9 84.1 59.1 39.1 1.1 8.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.4 8.9 12.0 91.3 64.7 42.6 0.7 5.6 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.8 11.8 8.3 93.1 63.1 43.3 1.1 4.4 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 14.3 11.2 84.4 63.9 44.0 2.3 5.8 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.2 12.8 10.4 101.0 67.9 45.8 0.3 2.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 4.0 12.7 11.8 81.8 55.7 39.6 3.4 10.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.7 10.0 9.2 79.4 62.2 43.8 1.1 3.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------