***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.6 8.0 6.4 78.2 63.4 42.6 0.3 1.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.0 6.6 8.3 99.3 67.4 45.4 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.6 8.2 7.2 100.5 68.2 44.9 0.1 1.3 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 0.3 7.6 7.2 96.2 70.0 41.2 0.2 0.9 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 0.0 2.2 6.0 97.9 70.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.2 1.8 4.5 67.2 60.6 37.1 0.0 0.6 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.0 5.5 8.0 94.4 64.8 46.3 0.8 2.1 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 2.4 11.2 5.9 77.8 62.5 36.9 1.6 6.6 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 0.1 3.7 6.1 93.5 69.1 44.9 0.0 0.2 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 0.1 5.7 6.5 82.6 64.8 40.9 0.0 0.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 0.1 2.7 5.4 101.2 71.5 42.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 0.1 4.7 5.0 91.0 68.4 38.1 0.0 0.3 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 0.0 1.6 4.3 81.1 65.8 35.4 0.0 0.1 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.7 12.0 10.3 112.2 70.0 44.7 0.7 6.4 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.1 2.8 5.2 102.0 74.2 40.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 0.1 2.5 5.5 101.0 71.8 40.3 0.0 0.3 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.3 5.3 7.7 81.7 64.0 46.9 0.7 2.8 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 0.6 7.8 8.4 89.3 62.9 42.4 0.1 1.5 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.9 6.2 8.5 102.1 68.3 44.8 0.5 2.0 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 1.6 7.4 7.1 70.6 57.3 35.8 1.6 4.9 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 0.6 4.3 5.6 81.3 66.4 43.6 0.0 1.4 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.9 7.5 9.3 97.0 66.5 48.0 0.9 1.8 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.0 9.0 8.4 102.5 68.4 44.9 0.9 4.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.3 9.6 8.4 104.8 67.4 44.4 0.6 3.0 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 0.3 4.9 5.9 71.1 66.3 42.2 0.1 0.8 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 0.0 1.5 3.1 72.2 66.9 36.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.6 6.4 72.9 64.3 43.0 0.8 6.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.3 4.0 6.2 102.9 72.2 41.4 0.1 0.7 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.3 9.6 8.6 88.7 63.4 40.6 0.7 6.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.6 5.7 8.1 102.8 67.5 45.6 0.1 1.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------