***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 27.8 28.3 29.0 1.6 77.4 72.6 26.4 27.0 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 27.9 28.2 28.9 1.4 75.0 70.8 26.2 27.1 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 27.6 27.9 29.2 1.6 76.4 72.5 26.3 26.9 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 21.2 22.5 27.7 2.5 86.8 82.5 19.4 20.4 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 28.9 29.3 27.9 1.9 80.2 76.8 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 27.6 27.9 25.2 1.6 81.5 76.6 25.5 26.6 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 27.5 27.6 28.8 1.5 75.4 71.1 25.8 26.6 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 17.1 17.5 25.9 1.8 82.3 76.7 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 28.2 28.9 28.5 2.1 82.4 78.3 26.5 27.0 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 28.1 28.7 26.7 1.9 81.6 76.4 25.9 26.7 27.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 28.6 29.2 27.9 2.0 81.5 77.0 26.5 27.2 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 28.0 29.0 27.3 2.0 82.6 77.8 25.5 27.0 27.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.5 26.9 1.7 80.8 74.8 26.4 27.9 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 27.8 28.2 27.4 1.6 78.6 73.8 25.9 26.9 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 28.9 29.6 29.2 2.6 86.9 84.4 26.9 27.7 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 29.4 30.4 27.6 2.1 83.5 78.3 27.4 28.3 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 27.2 27.4 28.5 1.4 74.3 70.3 25.5 26.1 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 27.0 27.5 25.9 1.8 80.2 75.9 25.4 25.9 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 27.7 28.0 29.1 1.6 76.9 72.3 25.9 26.6 27.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 23.2 24.0 23.6 1.7 81.7 75.2 21.4 22.2 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.3 28.8 28.9 1.7 78.1 74.3 26.5 27.0 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 27.5 27.9 28.2 1.3 73.6 68.6 26.3 26.6 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 27.6 28.3 29.4 2.0 81.6 77.1 26.2 26.8 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 27.5 27.9 27.7 1.8 80.2 75.9 25.8 26.5 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 28.1 28.6 27.8 1.8 78.5 75.2 26.6 27.3 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.3 26.9 2.1 84.4 79.1 26.1 27.7 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 27.7 28.1 28.2 1.6 77.6 73.7 26.2 26.9 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 29.0 29.9 28.2 2.4 86.6 82.4 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 22.5 22.9 24.9 1.6 79.5 74.1 20.8 21.6 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 27.6 27.9 29.0 1.5 74.9 70.9 26.3 26.8 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------