***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.8 27.3 1.2 63.5 60.2 22.9 24.3 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.9 27.2 1.0 64.9 59.2 22.6 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 26.0 25.7 27.6 1.2 64.3 60.5 23.2 24.4 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.8 19.4 26.2 2.0 72.9 66.7 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.7 26.3 1.6 66.5 63.3 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 24.8 24.6 23.6 1.4 67.4 63.3 22.2 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.0 27.2 1.1 66.0 60.0 22.8 23.8 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.4 24.6 1.6 67.7 63.4 11.7 12.4 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.7 26.6 1.6 67.2 63.5 22.6 24.1 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.6 25.3 1.6 67.4 63.1 22.4 24.1 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.7 26.1 26.1 1.6 66.6 63.6 22.3 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 25.1 25.2 25.8 1.6 67.3 63.8 21.9 23.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.9 26.2 24.9 1.3 64.7 61.7 23.4 24.4 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.6 25.6 1.3 64.3 60.3 22.8 24.4 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 26.4 27.2 26.9 2.0 76.8 68.2 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 26.9 26.9 25.8 1.6 69.2 64.2 23.6 24.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.4 26.9 1.0 63.5 59.3 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.6 25.4 24.6 1.5 69.4 62.4 21.7 22.9 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.4 27.3 1.1 65.2 59.8 22.3 24.4 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 20.9 21.2 22.2 1.4 69.3 62.1 17.7 18.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.9 26.0 27.1 1.3 64.7 61.4 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.2 26.7 1.0 63.4 58.8 22.7 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 26.1 25.5 27.5 1.4 66.2 61.5 22.4 24.3 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.5 25.6 25.9 1.4 67.4 61.7 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.7 26.0 1.4 65.6 61.7 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 25.7 25.9 25.4 1.6 68.1 64.6 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.9 26.5 1.2 63.5 60.5 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 26.4 26.7 26.4 2.0 74.1 66.9 23.3 24.9 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.2 20.5 23.6 1.4 67.4 61.3 17.3 18.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.6 27.3 1.1 64.9 59.5 22.7 24.2 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------