***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 27.6 27.8 29.1 2.3 77.0 72.3 23.8 27.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 27.7 27.7 29.0 2.1 75.4 70.6 24.5 27.0 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 27.4 27.9 29.5 2.4 77.5 72.8 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 20.9 22.6 28.3 3.3 89.0 79.1 17.5 19.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 28.0 29.2 28.1 2.8 84.5 75.2 25.0 26.7 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 27.3 27.8 25.4 2.3 79.9 74.1 23.8 25.9 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 27.2 27.2 28.9 2.1 75.8 71.0 24.4 26.7 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 16.7 18.2 26.4 2.7 84.2 74.8 13.3 15.2 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 27.6 29.1 28.4 2.8 82.6 75.4 24.3 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 27.1 29.1 27.1 2.8 83.2 74.8 24.4 25.3 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 27.7 29.2 27.9 2.9 84.3 75.8 24.7 26.0 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 27.6 29.0 27.7 2.8 84.1 75.4 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 28.7 29.3 26.8 2.5 78.6 73.5 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 27.6 28.3 27.4 2.4 79.5 73.1 24.3 26.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 28.1 29.5 29.0 3.3 88.5 80.6 25.9 26.9 27.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.3 27.8 2.9 84.3 76.7 25.5 27.9 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 26.9 27.2 28.6 2.0 76.3 69.8 23.8 25.8 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 26.4 28.1 26.4 2.7 82.7 74.2 23.3 25.1 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 27.6 28.0 29.2 2.2 76.5 71.4 23.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 22.8 23.4 23.9 2.5 82.0 73.1 19.6 21.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 27.7 28.5 28.9 2.5 78.8 73.4 24.5 26.2 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 27.4 27.7 28.4 1.9 76.1 69.1 24.1 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 27.5 27.9 29.4 2.5 79.8 73.7 24.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 27.2 28.1 27.7 2.6 81.1 74.3 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.9 27.8 2.6 81.5 74.0 24.7 26.8 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 28.5 29.3 27.3 2.8 82.3 76.2 24.7 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 27.4 27.9 28.3 2.3 79.5 72.9 24.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 28.5 29.8 28.5 3.3 88.1 79.6 25.5 26.6 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 22.1 23.4 25.2 2.4 80.6 72.7 18.2 20.5 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 27.4 27.5 29.1 2.2 75.2 71.1 24.1 26.4 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------