***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.7 29.4 1.7 77.4 67.4 27.1 28.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 29.6 30.0 29.3 1.5 74.8 65.5 26.2 28.0 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 30.5 31.2 29.6 1.7 76.1 66.1 26.3 28.4 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 23.7 25.8 28.1 2.6 84.7 74.3 20.4 21.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.0 31.7 28.2 1.9 77.8 67.2 28.0 29.2 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.9 25.8 1.7 75.4 66.8 26.6 27.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.5 29.3 1.6 74.4 66.3 25.7 27.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.8 26.2 1.8 75.5 66.0 16.1 16.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.2 31.5 28.9 2.1 79.9 68.4 26.9 28.6 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 29.9 30.1 27.0 1.8 75.6 65.7 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 30.6 31.4 28.2 1.8 76.7 66.0 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.6 27.6 1.9 78.0 67.5 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 31.4 32.2 27.6 1.6 75.5 65.3 28.0 28.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.3 27.7 1.6 77.0 65.0 26.4 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 31.4 33.1 30.0 2.8 85.6 77.4 27.0 29.1 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 31.9 32.7 28.1 2.0 78.9 68.1 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.0 28.9 1.5 71.3 64.6 25.8 27.8 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 28.9 28.7 26.1 1.7 74.1 64.9 26.0 27.0 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.8 29.5 1.6 76.4 66.3 26.0 27.9 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 25.5 26.2 24.0 1.7 74.8 64.9 22.3 23.0 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.3 31.1 29.3 1.7 76.6 66.3 26.6 28.6 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 29.3 29.5 28.6 1.2 69.6 62.6 26.3 28.0 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.5 29.8 2.1 80.1 69.4 26.4 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 29.4 30.0 27.9 1.8 76.3 65.7 26.2 27.7 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 30.5 31.5 28.3 1.9 77.7 68.0 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 31.0 32.0 27.5 2.1 80.6 70.0 27.7 28.7 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.5 28.7 1.8 76.9 68.0 26.5 27.8 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.2 32.5 28.8 2.5 83.5 74.2 27.6 29.2 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.8 25.1 1.5 72.8 63.4 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 29.5 30.0 29.4 1.5 75.4 65.9 26.3 28.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------