***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 31.9 31.3 30.0 1.1 70.0 66.0 29.0 30.9 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 30.9 31.0 30.1 1.1 67.2 64.7 28.5 30.0 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 31.3 31.5 30.2 1.2 67.7 65.2 28.2 30.4 31.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 24.9 25.3 28.3 2.0 77.6 74.7 21.8 23.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 32.3 32.6 29.0 1.5 73.0 69.0 28.7 31.0 32.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 30.8 30.8 26.0 1.2 69.1 67.0 28.1 29.8 30.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 30.9 30.4 29.9 1.0 67.5 64.4 28.4 29.9 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 19.9 20.3 26.6 1.4 68.9 66.8 16.7 18.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 31.5 31.9 30.1 2.0 75.9 72.3 28.2 29.9 31.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 31.0 31.3 27.7 1.5 70.3 67.6 27.4 30.0 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 31.9 32.2 29.3 1.6 72.1 69.1 28.1 31.0 31.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 31.2 31.2 28.0 1.6 71.8 69.2 27.7 29.9 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 32.3 32.9 28.5 1.4 70.8 68.1 28.9 30.9 32.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 31.0 31.0 29.0 1.4 70.3 66.6 27.8 30.1 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 32.3 32.9 30.8 2.2 81.6 77.9 29.0 30.4 32.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 33.1 33.6 28.8 1.7 72.7 70.3 29.6 31.4 33.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 30.4 29.9 29.6 1.1 66.3 64.4 27.9 29.1 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.4 26.7 1.4 69.5 66.4 27.0 28.8 30.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.6 30.6 30.4 1.3 69.1 66.5 27.6 29.9 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 26.3 26.7 24.4 1.1 66.9 64.3 23.1 24.9 26.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 31.6 31.7 30.3 1.4 70.9 67.3 27.9 30.5 31.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 30.8 30.6 29.3 0.9 64.1 62.0 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.8 30.9 31.0 2.1 75.6 72.4 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 30.8 31.2 29.1 1.5 71.9 68.4 27.1 29.7 30.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 31.3 31.8 29.0 1.2 72.3 66.9 28.2 30.1 31.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 32.2 32.6 27.5 1.7 73.1 70.9 28.0 30.9 31.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 31.2 31.1 29.3 1.1 71.0 66.4 28.0 30.1 30.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 32.3 32.7 29.2 1.9 78.1 74.6 28.9 30.9 32.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 25.7 26.2 25.7 1.1 67.0 64.2 22.4 24.2 26.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 31.3 30.8 30.1 1.0 67.5 64.4 28.2 30.2 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------