***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 14.5 14.7 17.9 1.1 79.5 73.9 13.8 14.2 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.5 17.4 0.7 71.8 68.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 16.8 17.1 18.0 1.0 76.9 72.8 15.5 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 12.4 12.9 15.6 1.1 82.0 76.8 11.0 11.5 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 13.0 13.3 15.8 1.1 81.4 76.0 12.2 12.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 12.2 12.5 13.5 1.0 82.4 76.7 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 14.7 14.8 17.7 0.9 76.6 71.5 13.9 14.3 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 7.8 8.0 13.3 0.9 80.5 73.9 6.7 7.3 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.8 15.9 1.1 83.2 77.5 13.4 13.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.4 14.2 0.9 80.1 73.4 13.2 13.8 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.0 15.2 1.0 81.3 75.6 12.8 13.1 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 12.0 12.3 14.3 1.0 82.3 76.2 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.2 13.7 0.8 77.4 72.1 12.2 12.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 14.9 14.9 15.4 0.7 73.8 69.0 13.6 14.5 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 15.5 16.1 17.3 1.5 87.7 83.5 14.3 14.9 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.8 15.1 14.7 1.0 81.3 76.2 13.8 14.3 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.1 17.1 0.7 71.3 67.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.8 13.2 0.7 76.5 70.5 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.5 17.5 0.8 72.4 69.6 13.6 14.1 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.8 11.2 0.6 75.4 68.3 7.7 8.3 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 13.8 14.1 17.1 1.1 80.6 75.4 13.3 13.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 13.9 13.8 17.0 0.6 68.5 65.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 13.8 13.9 17.6 1.0 76.6 74.0 13.0 13.6 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.5 14.7 15.4 0.9 77.2 72.7 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 14.2 14.4 16.8 1.1 80.2 75.6 13.5 13.8 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.5 13.4 0.8 80.9 73.5 12.3 12.9 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 14.6 14.7 17.3 1.1 80.3 75.1 13.7 14.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 13.1 13.4 16.0 1.2 84.5 79.6 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.2 12.5 0.6 74.1 68.4 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 14.9 15.0 17.8 0.9 74.9 70.6 13.9 14.4 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------