***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 12.8 12.7 16.8 1.0 69.9 62.4 10.5 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.4 12.8 16.3 0.7 65.5 59.7 10.5 11.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.2 16.9 0.9 70.1 61.8 12.4 13.8 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.1 14.3 1.0 70.1 64.4 7.9 8.7 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.7 14.2 0.9 68.9 63.3 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.3 12.5 1.0 72.5 66.6 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 12.8 13.0 16.6 0.9 69.7 61.7 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.1 12.1 0.6 64.6 60.9 3.9 4.6 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.5 12.5 14.4 0.9 68.7 63.1 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.8 12.3 12.8 0.7 63.8 60.2 10.2 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 11.9 12.1 13.6 0.8 67.2 62.7 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.9 12.8 0.8 67.9 63.1 8.7 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 11.5 11.3 12.2 0.8 63.6 61.9 9.7 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.1 14.1 0.6 62.3 58.4 10.7 12.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.3 13.6 15.6 1.2 72.0 67.8 11.8 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.0 13.2 1.0 67.9 64.2 10.7 11.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.0 16.1 0.8 66.6 60.3 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 11.3 11.8 0.6 60.8 58.8 8.9 10.7 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.6 12.8 16.3 0.7 65.3 59.5 11.0 11.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.9 9.7 0.4 56.1 57.0 5.4 6.1 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.3 15.8 0.9 68.6 62.5 10.1 11.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.5 12.3 15.9 0.7 65.6 59.5 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.4 12.6 16.3 0.8 66.7 60.4 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.8 13.9 0.7 64.6 59.9 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 12.7 12.9 15.4 1.0 69.0 62.7 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.8 12.2 0.8 66.6 63.0 9.8 10.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.3 12.7 16.1 1.0 68.8 63.1 10.4 11.7 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.2 14.6 1.1 71.0 66.0 9.1 10.7 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.8 11.3 0.5 59.5 57.8 8.0 8.9 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.1 16.7 0.8 68.2 60.8 11.2 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------