***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 14.6 14.7 17.7 1.4 77.2 70.4 12.8 13.8 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 14.5 14.5 17.4 1.1 73.9 67.4 11.8 13.7 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.1 18.0 1.4 77.6 70.2 14.3 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 12.4 12.9 15.4 1.5 77.9 71.9 9.8 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 13.6 13.9 15.2 1.3 75.6 69.8 10.8 12.6 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 12.5 13.1 13.4 1.2 80.4 70.8 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 14.7 15.0 17.6 1.3 74.8 69.0 12.3 13.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 8.1 8.6 13.1 1.2 78.9 69.3 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 14.5 14.9 15.4 1.4 78.4 70.2 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 14.2 14.5 13.8 1.2 76.3 68.5 12.4 13.3 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 14.2 14.6 14.6 1.2 77.4 68.9 11.8 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 12.5 12.8 13.8 1.2 78.2 69.8 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.8 13.0 1.0 68.6 66.2 11.0 12.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.1 15.1 1.0 72.0 66.4 13.0 14.1 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.2 16.7 1.6 80.9 74.5 13.4 14.8 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.3 14.1 1.2 75.1 69.1 12.5 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.9 17.0 1.1 72.2 66.2 12.7 14.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.9 12.9 1.1 74.4 67.8 10.8 11.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 14.6 14.6 17.4 1.2 74.8 68.1 12.6 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.5 10.8 0.9 72.5 66.9 6.9 8.1 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 14.2 14.6 16.9 1.4 79.3 70.5 11.9 12.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.0 16.9 1.0 72.0 65.7 11.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.4 17.4 1.4 76.7 69.9 12.0 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.7 15.1 1.3 76.5 69.0 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.0 16.5 1.5 77.8 71.5 12.3 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 13.6 13.5 13.0 1.1 70.7 67.6 11.5 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 15.1 15.6 17.0 1.4 76.3 70.6 11.7 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 13.6 14.3 15.7 1.5 79.3 72.6 10.9 12.0 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.5 12.3 1.0 74.8 67.2 9.8 10.9 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 14.7 14.9 17.7 1.3 74.9 68.5 12.5 14.0 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------