***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.8 18.4 1.0 69.1 62.5 14.3 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.5 17.7 0.6 63.2 59.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.5 18.5 18.5 0.9 69.9 61.9 15.9 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.0 14.6 16.3 1.2 76.6 67.9 11.2 12.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.4 16.5 1.1 74.7 65.7 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.3 14.3 1.1 74.4 68.7 11.7 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.9 18.1 0.8 68.5 62.1 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 9.0 9.5 14.1 1.1 74.8 66.4 7.1 8.1 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 15.6 16.1 16.6 1.1 73.0 65.7 13.2 14.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.6 14.9 1.0 71.4 64.5 13.1 14.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 14.7 15.0 16.1 1.1 72.9 67.0 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.1 15.2 1.2 74.5 67.2 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.0 14.6 0.8 67.7 62.7 12.5 13.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.0 15.9 0.6 67.0 59.2 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.5 17.1 18.3 1.7 84.7 75.7 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.3 15.5 1.1 73.0 66.7 14.4 14.8 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.8 17.4 0.5 63.1 58.8 14.2 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.4 13.9 0.8 67.9 61.5 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.6 17.9 0.7 66.0 60.3 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.3 12.0 0.7 67.9 62.0 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 14.6 15.2 17.7 1.0 71.0 63.7 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.6 17.4 0.4 62.0 57.5 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.0 15.1 18.1 0.9 71.2 63.5 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.5 16.1 0.8 69.6 62.6 13.4 15.0 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.3 17.5 1.1 73.0 64.3 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.4 14.2 1.0 70.0 63.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.3 16.3 17.9 1.0 70.1 63.4 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.2 14.7 16.8 1.4 79.1 71.3 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.6 13.2 0.7 67.0 61.0 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.3 18.2 0.8 67.2 60.8 14.0 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------