***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.7 18.8 0.9 73.8 67.3 14.9 15.9 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.7 16.1 18.1 0.4 64.8 62.0 15.0 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.1 19.3 18.8 0.7 69.5 65.6 17.2 18.1 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 14.3 15.4 16.3 0.6 67.8 65.6 12.4 14.1 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.8 17.0 0.9 71.7 68.7 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 13.5 13.8 13.7 0.5 63.6 62.2 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.9 18.6 0.7 70.8 66.4 15.4 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 10.0 10.5 14.0 0.7 67.4 65.4 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.1 16.3 17.2 1.1 74.9 72.0 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.0 15.1 0.8 70.0 67.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 15.4 15.3 16.5 0.9 71.5 69.1 13.8 14.8 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.5 15.3 0.8 69.6 67.8 12.1 13.1 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.2 14.4 14.8 0.5 62.5 61.4 13.4 14.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 46 54 100 16.5 16.2 16.3 0.5 64.7 62.5 14.9 15.9 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 17.4 17.6 18.6 1.4 79.3 77.1 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.6 15.8 0.7 69.4 66.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 16.4 16.4 17.8 0.4 64.4 62.1 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.8 14.2 14.2 0.5 64.6 63.3 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 16.1 16.3 18.3 0.5 66.4 63.6 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 9.7 10.0 12.2 0.4 60.4 60.2 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 15.7 16.0 18.1 0.9 72.3 69.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 15.0 15.3 17.9 0.2 63.1 60.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.7 18.6 0.9 71.7 68.6 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 16.2 15.9 16.5 0.7 67.9 65.8 14.5 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.4 17.9 0.9 71.6 66.8 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 14.7 14.7 14.0 0.5 61.3 61.2 14.1 14.6 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.2 18.3 1.0 73.5 67.9 15.3 16.3 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.7 16.9 0.9 71.7 69.6 13.1 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 13.8 14.3 13.3 0.4 61.4 60.0 12.1 13.7 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 16.8 16.7 18.6 0.6 69.3 64.9 15.1 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------