***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 49.5 59.9 41.9 112.3 65.5 56.2 20.7 44.0 61.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 41.7 53.8 39.1 110.8 65.4 56.7 22.4 35.0 54.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 67.7 71.9 43.0 119.8 70.9 59.6 28.1 44.5 66.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 55.7 59.0 38.2 106.9 64.3 52.3 37.0 47.0 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 42.9 51.1 38.8 114.9 68.3 54.6 20.5 37.5 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 27.4 48.6 42.4 105.7 59.7 51.4 23.0 39.8 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.4 47.9 38.4 107.7 65.2 56.3 20.4 34.3 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 74.2 91.6 46.3 116.9 67.4 57.6 55.7 65.1 85.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 44.6 56.4 42.0 118.4 69.8 56.2 31.4 37.9 48.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 52.6 63.6 49.7 118.9 67.3 57.2 36.8 47.1 63.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 43.6 51.2 37.6 112.6 64.1 53.6 23.8 38.7 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 46.2 52.6 35.5 112.6 66.1 55.5 31.8 41.3 52.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.4 45.8 33.3 102.6 58.8 50.5 28.2 40.8 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 60.1 76.2 57.1 119.8 68.8 56.9 40.4 52.1 74.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.8 37.9 34.2 106.9 64.1 52.8 13.1 21.8 40.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 26.6 47.2 33.3 103.3 59.3 50.3 35.6 42.3 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 29.3 50.2 40.9 111.4 65.1 55.7 24.4 42.5 50.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 51.2 54.0 57.2 119.8 66.0 58.6 35.4 45.5 54.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 44.9 58.2 40.5 112.6 66.5 57.3 23.3 38.7 57.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 64.2 63.3 56.1 112.2 62.8 55.7 43.5 55.7 74.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 44.2 68.6 41.7 119.8 69.5 57.4 26.5 34.3 65.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 49.9 59.1 42.1 108.4 65.2 54.2 32.1 45.0 59.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 54.6 65.3 43.6 115.8 67.1 57.6 24.7 49.0 64.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 58.1 70.9 51.2 120.4 68.9 58.5 38.0 51.1 68.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 44.8 48.4 43.8 108.5 64.4 53.6 21.6 34.5 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 31.6 34.8 31.5 111.4 61.0 54.1 23.5 28.0 37.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 49.8 60.4 44.1 108.7 63.4 54.2 20.6 40.1 61.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 36.7 37.9 35.3 105.2 62.6 51.4 20.5 33.8 39.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 78.0 92.0 59.4 117.8 66.0 58.6 58.7 69.1 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 43.2 54.6 39.7 111.2 66.4 57.5 23.7 38.4 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------