***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 9.6 11.5 116.1 64.9 53.4 0.1 4.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 12.5 12.8 132.8 72.4 54.1 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 11.2 11.6 118.8 68.0 55.1 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.1 21.5 10.7 103.3 70.9 53.4 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.9 18.3 10.7 110.0 69.4 52.6 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.3 12.1 94.6 64.5 48.2 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 17.0 12.2 126.1 72.4 54.2 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.2 26.2 11.1 95.7 62.1 49.0 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.5 11.1 108.6 65.2 52.5 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.0 12.5 12.4 102.8 63.7 50.5 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 18.4 10.2 103.6 67.2 51.6 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.7 15.4 9.1 94.1 64.7 49.9 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 18.6 9.2 86.5 64.1 48.5 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.8 14.2 15.4 115.5 64.6 53.4 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.0 6.9 9.2 94.5 70.3 52.0 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.5 17.7 9.6 93.7 67.3 50.9 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 14.7 14.0 146.7 75.8 57.3 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 17.1 14.5 108.1 63.6 51.2 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 16.8 12.7 128.9 70.9 54.6 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.1 13.2 92.2 58.3 48.3 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.9 13.2 11.2 117.7 67.4 53.1 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 15.5 14.7 139.5 71.6 57.2 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.7 10.7 12.5 121.7 67.3 55.2 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.8 13.9 117.1 66.8 53.9 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.1 10.7 12.0 111.9 65.2 53.2 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.6 8.0 88.2 64.7 48.1 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.0 8.9 11.8 110.6 64.5 52.6 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.5 13.2 9.8 95.7 70.4 51.8 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.4 26.6 14.7 105.5 62.3 50.9 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 11.8 11.9 121.0 69.6 53.3 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------