***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 13.8 9.4 107.8 70.4 52.1 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.4 18.0 9.8 118.4 71.1 51.1 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.0 21.0 9.4 109.1 70.3 51.3 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 24.6 10.0 117.0 73.9 53.4 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.5 23.5 9.7 119.3 72.4 50.6 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.1 18.3 11.2 119.2 72.8 50.6 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.0 13.9 10.4 123.6 73.4 53.1 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.7 29.5 10.3 113.2 68.3 49.7 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.4 21.5 10.1 116.4 71.2 49.6 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.2 23.8 11.2 114.4 68.9 50.3 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 20.6 8.8 120.4 71.3 50.1 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.0 17.9 8.4 118.9 71.4 49.8 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.9 30.8 9.1 123.8 73.9 49.9 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.9 18.7 13.6 114.7 68.9 49.7 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.4 8.9 10.0 129.7 75.8 53.6 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.2 25.4 8.5 120.1 73.7 50.4 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 15.2 10.3 118.0 72.2 52.1 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 13.9 12.7 109.2 68.2 51.3 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 15.0 9.5 114.0 70.4 50.9 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.5 19.8 11.7 98.0 63.7 49.5 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.6 17.0 9.5 109.6 70.3 50.0 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.6 15.5 9.6 103.2 68.6 50.8 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.5 21.6 9.6 110.8 71.0 50.1 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.3 23.6 11.5 107.3 68.5 50.3 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.5 19.1 11.1 115.7 74.2 51.9 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.7 23.5 7.2 117.9 77.3 52.2 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.6 15.3 11.1 117.5 72.5 53.0 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.3 16.8 9.8 122.8 74.2 52.9 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 26.3 12.9 105.7 67.7 50.2 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.7 9.7 115.0 70.9 51.3 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------