***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.9 9.4 13.2 129.4 73.9 52.5 0.0 2.0 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.4 12.5 9.4 100.1 66.7 50.3 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.6 14.8 13.8 143.4 76.2 53.2 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 17.7 11.8 133.4 74.1 55.5 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 11.6 12.0 142.2 74.7 55.8 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.8 12.3 13.5 135.3 74.0 56.5 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.1 13.0 9.6 101.8 66.5 51.5 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 20.0 25.5 14.2 151.5 77.1 62.4 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.6 11.8 13.7 148.3 75.4 56.8 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.3 14.6 15.2 148.5 74.1 60.0 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.2 11.8 11.7 131.1 71.9 54.8 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.3 8.0 11.3 143.0 75.8 58.6 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 1.2 9.8 10.4 129.8 72.0 55.9 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.7 24.4 17.5 143.0 75.7 56.2 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.4 8.6 10.7 126.1 75.8 51.4 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.3 5.9 10.3 124.3 71.0 54.6 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 16.8 9.9 102.8 66.0 48.6 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.4 17.7 17.7 150.4 74.1 61.1 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 15.2 10.4 109.5 68.4 51.5 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 16.1 19.5 18.1 153.0 75.3 64.9 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.6 9.9 14.1 145.2 74.8 54.8 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.2 10.8 104.6 64.6 47.5 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.0 18.2 12.7 128.7 73.1 54.2 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.4 14.0 16.0 144.0 72.8 57.2 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.2 8.1 14.2 127.6 71.3 53.5 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.2 14.2 11.7 147.1 78.4 59.4 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.4 17.9 13.9 122.8 72.1 51.8 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 0.7 14.5 10.7 130.2 75.1 53.4 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 22.1 18.8 145.7 74.7 61.9 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.3 10.9 10.6 112.4 70.7 51.0 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------