***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.6 7.7 92.0 65.8 50.3 0.1 4.1 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.4 7.1 89.1 63.6 53.2 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.6 11.5 8.1 104.1 68.9 54.5 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 0.5 5.2 5.7 71.3 62.8 45.6 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.8 6.3 85.5 62.6 48.0 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 0.5 3.4 5.7 71.2 58.8 43.3 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.8 6.2 76.5 60.5 49.6 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.4 15.1 10.8 112.6 70.0 56.5 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.0 8.5 7.1 96.8 65.5 51.2 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 16.6 11.0 111.8 69.9 56.0 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 2.5 4.6 6.9 95.8 68.1 51.1 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 3.8 4.7 6.8 98.1 67.7 52.6 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.3 4.6 71.3 56.7 44.8 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.9 17.3 10.5 103.4 66.5 56.5 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.4 3.4 4.3 70.6 65.7 46.9 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 0.3 2.2 4.9 74.3 60.1 46.1 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 4.3 4.0 6.6 75.9 59.9 50.4 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.3 11.8 12.3 112.8 67.8 57.6 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.9 7.9 95.3 65.7 54.2 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.3 12.8 13.0 111.5 69.6 57.1 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 11.5 6.9 100.5 66.5 52.5 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 7.9 7.1 80.8 61.9 51.3 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.4 8.8 99.6 66.0 54.3 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.7 15.4 9.8 110.8 67.8 56.5 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.3 5.8 6.5 73.1 59.8 46.3 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 0.3 3.5 4.6 89.3 64.3 47.4 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.9 7.3 80.3 61.8 47.8 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.9 4.2 5.0 69.1 63.6 46.9 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.0 17.4 12.9 115.3 68.6 58.5 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.9 12.4 7.4 93.6 65.7 53.2 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------