***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 24.4 27.1 28.6 0.6 54.3 56.5 24.5 27.0 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.1 28.8 0.8 56.0 57.6 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 24.4 26.2 28.7 0.4 50.8 54.9 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 17.5 19.7 26.5 0.4 51.5 54.1 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.1 26.5 26.2 -0.2 44.3 48.0 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 24.3 26.1 23.9 0.0 49.3 50.7 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.7 28.8 0.9 56.9 58.5 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.2 24.4 -0.3 45.1 48.2 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.9 26.3 -0.3 43.1 47.4 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 26.8 25.8 25.0 -0.3 44.0 47.8 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 24.5 26.4 26.0 -0.1 46.0 49.6 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 27.0 25.7 25.7 -0.1 47.0 49.2 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.3 27.2 24.9 -0.4 44.2 46.4 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.8 25.8 25.8 -0.3 45.5 48.0 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 28.2 27.8 27.6 0.8 59.9 58.3 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.7 27.7 25.8 0.0 47.4 50.1 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 25.9 26.1 28.6 0.9 57.3 59.0 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 23.6 25.3 24.4 -0.3 45.2 47.8 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.6 27.0 28.8 0.7 55.2 56.5 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.4 21.8 -0.6 42.5 45.2 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.4 26.2 27.4 -0.2 45.4 49.3 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.5 28.4 0.8 57.4 57.9 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.5 28.4 0.4 53.2 54.5 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.6 26.0 -0.2 46.6 49.4 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 24.6 26.7 26.5 0.1 49.3 51.5 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.6 25.8 0.3 51.6 52.9 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 24.3 26.6 27.5 0.5 52.9 54.9 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 25.5 27.0 26.8 0.5 54.0 55.2 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.3 23.3 -0.5 43.7 46.3 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.5 28.9 0.8 55.8 57.3 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------