***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.4 29.5 1.0 62.8 59.6 27.2 28.6 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.6 29.5 0.9 61.1 58.3 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.8 29.2 0.5 57.5 54.7 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.7 26.7 0.4 57.2 55.2 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.2 26.7 -0.4 46.9 47.1 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.0 24.4 -0.3 48.8 47.7 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.8 29.6 1.0 63.9 60.3 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.4 24.4 -0.6 41.5 43.6 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 27.0 28.3 27.1 -0.4 47.8 46.4 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.2 28.3 25.2 -0.6 43.8 44.3 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.6 26.7 -0.3 45.6 47.2 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.4 25.9 -0.4 43.1 46.1 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 27.5 28.5 26.0 -0.5 43.3 44.7 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.7 26.4 -0.5 46.2 45.7 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.0 30.4 28.8 0.8 61.8 60.0 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 28.5 30.1 26.5 -0.2 47.0 48.0 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.9 29.3 1.1 65.2 60.6 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.1 26.9 24.3 -0.7 41.8 43.3 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.7 29.3 0.6 59.0 56.5 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.4 22.0 -0.9 36.0 40.0 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.6 28.1 -0.2 50.2 48.8 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.8 29.0 0.9 63.8 58.6 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.4 29.0 0.5 57.0 54.9 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 26.5 27.7 26.5 -0.4 47.3 46.5 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.4 27.5 0.2 54.4 52.7 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.0 25.7 -0.2 47.4 47.6 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.9 28.4 0.7 58.9 56.9 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.0 30.0 27.4 0.4 57.0 55.3 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.5 22.1 23.4 -0.8 39.4 41.6 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.7 29.6 0.8 60.7 58.3 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------