***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 32.2 32.7 32.0 2.9 83.7 82.2 28.8 30.6 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 31.5 32.0 31.9 2.6 80.8 78.8 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 31.4 31.8 31.5 2.2 77.4 75.1 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.5 24.8 28.1 1.7 73.9 72.8 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 31.1 32.2 28.7 1.2 67.2 65.8 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 29.5 30.4 26.1 1.1 66.3 65.4 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 31.3 32.0 32.1 2.9 83.6 81.9 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 18.6 19.0 25.9 0.6 59.7 58.2 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 30.2 30.9 29.3 1.1 66.9 65.1 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 29.9 30.3 26.9 0.6 60.6 58.7 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 30.8 31.5 28.9 1.1 65.0 64.9 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 29.8 30.4 27.4 1.0 63.9 63.3 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 30.6 32.1 28.3 1.2 65.3 65.3 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 29.9 30.6 28.7 1.0 66.0 64.4 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 32.4 33.1 30.9 2.1 81.7 79.7 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 32.4 32.8 28.4 1.1 66.7 65.8 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 31.0 32.0 31.7 3.0 84.9 82.1 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 29.1 29.1 25.8 0.5 56.7 56.3 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 31.0 31.4 31.5 2.2 77.2 75.8 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 25.0 24.8 23.5 0.2 51.5 52.3 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 31.3 31.4 30.4 1.4 71.6 69.1 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 31.5 31.9 31.0 2.3 78.6 76.8 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.9 31.1 31.2 2.1 76.7 74.7 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 29.4 30.5 28.6 1.0 64.0 63.3 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 31.8 32.0 29.8 1.8 76.4 74.3 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 31.6 31.8 27.2 1.3 68.1 66.3 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 31.5 31.7 30.7 2.4 80.9 79.3 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 32.2 32.1 29.0 1.5 73.2 71.7 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 24.5 24.7 25.0 0.4 55.2 54.9 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 31.4 32.2 32.0 2.6 82.1 79.4 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------