***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 14.6 14.9 18.1 1.1 80.9 75.3 14.0 14.3 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 14.6 15.0 17.8 1.1 80.3 74.4 13.8 14.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 16.8 17.1 18.0 0.9 75.0 69.9 15.8 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.1 15.2 0.5 67.1 63.1 11.2 11.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.8 15.1 0.3 60.0 57.6 12.3 12.5 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.1 12.9 0.2 54.1 55.3 11.4 11.8 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.0 18.1 1.2 81.4 76.1 13.9 14.5 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.5 12.7 0.2 59.1 55.4 7.0 7.4 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.1 15.1 0.3 59.6 57.6 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.0 13.5 0.2 58.9 55.6 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.4 14.5 0.2 57.8 55.1 13.0 13.3 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 13.5 0.2 57.3 55.3 11.1 11.8 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.5 12.8 -0.1 44.1 46.4 12.3 12.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.8 15.1 0.4 63.7 60.6 13.8 14.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 15.6 15.5 16.7 0.7 71.0 67.1 14.4 15.1 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.3 13.8 0.1 49.4 50.3 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.4 17.6 1.2 81.9 76.6 14.1 14.7 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.5 12.7 0.2 57.4 56.3 11.7 12.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 14.5 14.7 17.7 1.0 77.5 72.0 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.4 10.7 0.2 55.7 54.7 7.8 8.3 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.8 16.5 0.4 63.4 60.3 13.3 13.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.3 17.5 1.0 77.7 73.4 13.2 13.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 13.9 14.1 17.5 0.8 75.8 69.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.4 14.9 0.4 63.2 60.5 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 14.3 14.3 16.5 0.7 70.5 66.2 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.2 12.7 0.2 53.8 54.4 12.3 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 14.6 14.7 17.3 1.0 77.7 72.4 14.0 14.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.9 15.4 0.4 63.9 60.6 12.2 12.7 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.7 12.1 0.2 57.6 56.0 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.9 15.2 18.2 1.1 81.1 74.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------