***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 17.5 0.7 60.7 59.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.2 17.4 0.7 61.7 59.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.0 17.5 0.5 58.0 57.0 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.5 14.8 0.5 58.2 56.5 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.5 14.3 0.1 51.5 50.9 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.9 12.7 0.2 51.7 52.8 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 17.6 0.8 62.4 61.3 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.7 12.2 0.0 48.1 49.6 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.6 14.4 0.1 50.5 50.3 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.2 12.9 0.0 47.8 48.9 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.3 12.9 13.7 0.1 49.8 50.4 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.7 12.8 0.1 50.0 50.7 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.4 12.2 0.0 47.3 48.8 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.2 14.5 0.0 50.2 50.3 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.5 16.2 0.6 61.9 59.1 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.2 13.2 0.1 50.2 51.1 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.9 17.1 0.8 62.4 60.7 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.3 11.8 12.0 0.0 47.2 49.6 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.3 17.2 0.6 60.7 58.3 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 8.5 7.7 9.9 -0.1 44.9 47.4 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 16.0 0.2 52.1 52.6 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.8 17.0 0.6 59.6 58.7 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.7 16.9 0.4 58.3 56.3 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.5 14.3 0.2 50.7 51.6 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.7 14.0 15.8 0.4 56.5 55.5 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.3 12.4 0.3 54.8 54.5 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.3 16.6 0.6 60.3 58.5 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 15.0 0.5 57.8 56.4 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 11.4 10.7 11.4 -0.1 45.1 48.1 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.5 17.6 0.8 61.8 60.1 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------