***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.6 18.4 0.8 61.4 60.2 14.4 15.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.4 18.0 0.7 61.0 58.4 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.9 18.3 0.5 58.3 56.8 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.3 15.7 0.4 55.2 55.4 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.5 15.7 0.1 50.1 50.8 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.9 13.5 0.2 54.4 54.0 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.6 18.4 0.8 63.7 60.6 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.1 13.2 0.0 50.6 50.5 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.9 15.6 0.0 50.4 50.3 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.6 14.0 0.0 50.4 50.2 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.9 15.2 0.1 50.0 51.2 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.2 14.2 0.1 49.9 50.9 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.4 13.8 0.1 49.0 50.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.3 15.5 0.1 51.4 52.0 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 17.5 0.7 66.0 61.3 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.0 14.6 0.1 48.5 50.9 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.1 17.8 0.8 63.6 60.2 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 13.2 0.0 48.1 49.1 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.4 18.0 0.5 58.4 57.2 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.7 11.3 0.0 49.5 49.8 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.6 17.0 0.1 52.2 52.0 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.5 17.9 0.7 63.2 59.3 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.5 17.8 0.5 56.8 56.8 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.9 15.5 0.1 51.4 51.5 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.6 16.9 0.3 54.8 54.4 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.0 13.5 0.2 55.8 53.1 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.9 17.6 0.6 59.2 58.0 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.4 16.1 0.4 57.7 56.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.3 12.6 0.0 48.7 50.0 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.3 18.4 0.7 62.2 59.6 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------