***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 16.8 17.2 20.6 2.9 92.6 91.0 15.0 16.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.6 17.7 20.1 2.7 92.2 90.0 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 19.4 20.2 20.1 2.3 88.4 86.6 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 15.2 15.6 17.0 1.4 78.8 76.2 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 15.0 15.5 17.4 1.3 81.0 78.2 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 13.5 13.6 13.9 0.6 64.7 64.1 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.9 17.9 20.5 2.9 91.5 90.2 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 10.3 10.9 14.2 1.0 77.4 74.2 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 16.4 16.6 17.2 1.4 82.9 80.4 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.2 16.4 15.3 1.1 79.9 76.5 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.7 16.4 1.0 76.1 72.8 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 13.8 13.9 15.5 1.0 76.8 74.2 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.1 14.5 0.2 55.7 54.8 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 17.0 17.5 17.1 1.6 85.3 83.2 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.2 17.4 18.4 1.1 74.7 73.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 15.9 16.1 15.4 0.4 61.7 60.4 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 17.4 18.4 20.0 2.9 92.7 91.0 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.4 14.6 14.7 1.2 79.2 77.9 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 16.6 17.6 19.9 2.4 90.7 88.2 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.5 12.7 1.0 77.4 75.5 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 16.0 16.1 18.5 1.5 82.3 80.6 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 16.2 17.2 19.8 2.4 90.5 87.9 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 16.1 16.6 19.7 2.3 90.1 87.5 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.4 16.5 17.0 1.5 82.8 81.3 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 16.3 16.9 19.1 2.1 87.1 85.3 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 14.7 14.8 14.0 0.5 62.1 61.3 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 17.4 18.2 19.8 2.6 90.4 89.0 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 14.5 14.5 16.8 0.8 70.0 68.0 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 14.6 14.9 13.9 1.1 81.0 78.4 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.2 18.0 20.5 2.7 91.9 89.7 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------