***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 20.2 55.3 38.5 33.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 24.1 24.9 22.1 62.0 39.0 36.2 22.4 35.0 54.5 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 25.2 31.5 21.5 60.2 36.3 33.7 28.1 44.5 66.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 31.0 42.9 21.8 65.4 39.3 35.3 37.0 47.0 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 21.2 23.8 21.1 62.1 37.2 33.0 20.5 37.5 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 24.4 29.8 28.9 70.7 40.1 36.6 23.0 39.8 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 24.0 23.5 22.5 61.8 41.2 36.4 20.4 34.3 48.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 49.2 58.4 24.6 65.2 36.2 32.8 55.7 65.1 85.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 25.0 34.0 22.0 62.1 37.6 32.5 31.4 37.9 48.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 31.6 37.8 25.7 64.2 35.7 32.6 36.8 47.1 63.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 23.1 26.0 20.5 70.3 40.3 36.0 23.8 38.7 52.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 23.4 36.3 19.4 68.0 39.4 34.9 31.8 41.3 52.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 25.1 39.8 23.1 70.6 46.0 35.5 28.2 40.8 51.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 38.0 41.2 27.8 62.5 35.7 34.6 40.4 52.1 74.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 11.6 20.2 20.9 72.0 45.7 36.3 13.1 21.8 40.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 22.2 41.4 22.2 73.3 44.9 37.6 35.6 42.3 49.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 28.8 32.3 21.0 58.6 39.1 35.6 24.4 42.5 50.5 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 31.2 35.7 30.5 63.3 34.6 31.9 35.4 45.5 54.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 24.0 26.3 21.8 62.1 38.2 36.0 23.3 38.7 57.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 38.2 44.2 35.0 66.7 35.0 31.7 43.5 55.7 74.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 21.7 28.4 20.1 59.2 36.8 32.7 26.5 34.3 65.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 34.3 33.2 21.2 57.6 36.1 33.4 32.1 45.0 59.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 25.2 26.2 22.2 62.7 38.2 36.2 24.7 49.0 64.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 34.9 41.2 26.8 62.9 35.3 33.3 38.0 51.1 68.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 19.5 22.9 23.6 59.7 35.5 33.2 21.6 34.5 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.6 27.7 19.8 73.3 48.4 38.5 23.5 28.0 37.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 23.0 25.7 23.8 58.1 36.7 33.6 20.6 40.1 61.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 17.8 30.2 21.5 69.8 43.2 36.5 20.5 33.8 39.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 44.1 60.1 33.0 64.8 34.0 32.2 58.7 69.1 92.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 24.1 25.4 22.2 61.6 38.9 35.6 23.7 38.4 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------