***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 6.6 112.6 70.6 55.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 5.9 12.4 6.3 104.7 72.1 55.6 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.9 13.0 7.1 114.1 70.4 53.7 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 20.7 6.1 83.2 67.4 48.5 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.9 18.1 6.8 89.8 69.0 49.4 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.9 10.5 7.8 83.8 68.0 47.2 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.3 17.0 6.4 104.9 72.8 55.4 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.2 27.0 8.5 92.3 63.8 48.8 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 17.7 7.4 95.8 68.5 50.2 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.8 8.7 92.7 65.3 49.0 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.1 18.6 6.8 98.5 69.4 50.5 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.6 17.6 6.3 89.9 66.6 49.9 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.9 19.5 6.4 83.3 68.8 47.6 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.7 14.1 7.8 84.7 62.3 48.5 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 6.6 5.4 82.8 65.4 46.0 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 18.3 6.4 91.6 70.4 49.1 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.1 13.6 6.0 102.3 71.0 57.4 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.8 17.0 9.7 83.4 62.2 47.5 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 14.8 6.1 100.8 69.4 54.0 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 19.7 12.0 91.0 60.8 47.7 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.3 13.7 6.7 105.0 70.9 51.7 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 14.2 6.0 95.3 69.1 55.3 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.6 6.1 94.3 67.3 51.4 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.5 8.3 90.1 65.1 49.2 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.4 10.8 7.1 95.5 65.3 49.8 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.0 5.7 85.5 68.2 48.6 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 9.4 7.2 102.3 67.7 52.1 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.3 5.6 81.2 66.0 47.3 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 26.6 10.2 82.7 62.5 47.2 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.0 13.6 6.6 109.6 72.2 55.2 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------