***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 7.4 89.4 63.8 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.8 7.6 79.5 58.9 44.9 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.3 16.7 7.9 84.6 60.1 43.3 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.7 18.7 7.6 88.9 63.9 39.5 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.9 11.9 7.6 86.4 58.7 40.1 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.7 10.6 10.0 79.9 59.6 40.9 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 9.1 7.5 80.6 61.7 44.2 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.8 22.1 8.4 79.2 59.2 40.9 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.5 7.9 83.9 58.0 40.1 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.1 13.8 8.8 80.8 56.3 40.1 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.7 15.4 7.3 92.4 61.7 41.2 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.0 14.0 7.0 86.9 63.0 41.9 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.8 9.0 8.3 85.4 59.8 41.4 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 5.8 15.1 9.6 79.2 57.8 42.3 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 0.9 8.0 7.4 94.3 66.7 38.8 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.7 17.0 7.9 91.7 63.2 41.1 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.5 13.9 7.0 69.9 61.5 44.0 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.2 12.4 10.6 79.4 53.7 40.3 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.9 7.7 79.7 57.4 44.2 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.3 16.8 11.5 76.4 51.5 40.3 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.9 7.4 88.0 61.9 42.6 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 7.5 14.6 6.8 67.1 59.0 42.3 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.9 12.8 7.9 80.6 56.9 43.3 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.9 12.9 9.6 81.7 56.9 41.2 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.0 15.3 8.3 90.6 62.4 42.7 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.4 13.4 6.5 84.0 66.0 42.1 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.1 8.4 91.2 62.5 43.2 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.7 13.9 7.7 90.7 65.6 39.7 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 5.8 17.6 11.2 79.9 52.6 40.9 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.8 7.8 83.4 60.0 44.7 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------