***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.1 38.6 50.5 38.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.2 6.0 66.8 55.3 42.5 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.8 4.2 44.5 50.1 36.1 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.9 4.3 51.6 55.9 37.3 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.2 4.1 47.4 50.0 33.7 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.3 7.7 7.2 72.2 52.8 38.9 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.6 9.9 6.2 64.7 55.8 41.1 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.9 10.5 5.0 55.4 46.2 34.0 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.9 4.2 45.4 46.0 34.6 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 1.6 3.1 5.3 53.6 46.0 34.6 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.0 3.3 4.1 58.2 53.9 35.4 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.2 3.0 3.8 58.8 52.5 34.8 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.2 4.9 66.9 53.8 35.7 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.7 7.4 68.3 51.8 39.3 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.4 2.7 4.6 68.5 61.0 38.7 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.6 4.8 67.4 56.2 37.8 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.2 8.9 5.9 66.7 52.6 43.0 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.7 6.8 58.2 44.1 32.8 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.4 5.7 65.1 55.0 42.2 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.2 8.1 7.9 60.8 43.9 32.8 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.1 3.5 37.1 47.5 37.3 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.3 13.0 6.1 67.0 54.9 43.1 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.9 5.7 65.1 55.8 42.4 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.7 6.6 5.9 56.3 45.7 34.6 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.0 2.5 4.7 41.3 48.5 36.3 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.2 3.6 66.4 55.7 38.0 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.8 5.3 43.5 50.4 37.7 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.6 4.7 65.1 59.8 38.9 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.0 9.2 7.9 63.6 44.9 34.5 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.2 9.3 5.6 59.3 55.9 40.1 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------