***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.2 18.3 25.9 19.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 0.7 0.3 2.2 19.8 27.5 19.7 0.8 3.5 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 0.9 1.5 2.3 21.4 30.1 21.7 2.3 4.9 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.2 3.8 41.8 47.3 37.2 0.8 1.3 6.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 0.2 0.0 2.6 28.8 32.3 25.3 0.0 1.0 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 0.4 1.1 3.9 42.9 48.5 31.4 0.0 1.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.0 2.3 20.5 32.7 21.7 1.1 3.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 1.3 2.2 2.7 30.5 34.1 23.3 2.0 7.1 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 0.5 0.2 2.4 27.3 32.0 21.2 0.2 2.7 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.0 2.9 29.1 31.7 22.5 0.1 7.7 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 0.3 0.0 2.2 30.9 37.0 27.1 0.0 1.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 0.5 0.5 2.3 32.8 38.0 25.1 0.0 2.0 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 0.3 0.1 3.5 44.0 40.3 29.1 0.0 1.1 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 1.8 0.8 3.0 24.4 26.9 22.4 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 0.2 0.3 3.4 43.8 46.4 32.3 0.0 0.6 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 0.2 0.3 3.1 41.0 42.3 32.4 0.1 0.6 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 0.6 0.6 2.1 19.1 30.3 21.6 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 1.0 1.0 3.4 29.6 30.8 20.5 1.2 5.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 0.6 0.9 2.3 21.4 29.5 20.3 1.3 3.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 1.2 2.0 3.7 32.9 28.7 19.7 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 0.5 0.1 2.5 25.8 33.7 24.5 0.1 2.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.7 2.3 20.3 29.7 20.4 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 1.1 1.5 2.4 23.4 35.6 22.1 0.9 5.1 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.0 27.3 33.4 22.6 2.7 10.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 0.5 0.4 3.5 30.0 37.4 27.7 0.2 1.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.1 4.0 55.4 51.1 33.9 0.0 0.9 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 1.1 1.0 3.0 23.5 32.6 24.1 1.0 5.4 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 0.8 1.2 3.5 42.7 47.2 35.0 0.1 1.9 4.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 1.5 1.2 3.7 30.5 28.6 19.0 1.9 7.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 0.6 0.4 2.2 19.5 29.7 20.2 1.5 3.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------