***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 0.0 28.3 1.5 83.0 75.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 28.1 28.8 28.7 1.8 85.3 77.4 26.3 27.2 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 28.1 29.3 28.8 1.9 86.9 79.3 26.6 27.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 21.3 21.6 26.7 1.2 79.6 70.8 19.4 20.6 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 29.2 29.8 27.1 1.6 84.0 76.3 26.6 28.0 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 27.7 28.5 24.9 1.7 86.7 77.9 25.8 27.1 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 27.5 28.4 28.2 1.5 82.6 74.5 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 17.3 18.4 25.8 2.2 90.3 82.1 15.1 16.3 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 28.6 29.6 27.6 1.9 88.0 79.8 26.5 27.2 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 28.3 29.8 26.4 2.2 89.7 82.2 26.2 26.9 28.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 29.0 30.1 27.0 2.0 88.1 80.3 26.5 27.6 28.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 28.2 29.5 26.9 2.1 89.5 81.5 25.7 27.1 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 29.2 30.5 26.4 2.1 88.2 80.0 26.5 28.1 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 28.2 29.6 27.6 2.5 92.1 85.1 26.1 27.1 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 28.8 29.1 27.3 1.0 73.8 68.1 27.1 27.8 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 29.8 31.1 26.8 1.9 87.6 78.9 27.5 28.6 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 27.7 28.6 28.3 1.8 86.3 78.7 25.5 26.2 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 27.3 28.9 25.7 2.4 91.6 83.8 25.5 26.1 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 28.0 29.4 29.1 2.1 88.1 80.7 26.0 26.9 27.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 23.5 24.9 23.6 2.2 91.5 82.1 21.5 22.4 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 28.6 29.5 28.1 1.6 83.9 75.8 26.7 27.1 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 28.0 29.4 28.6 2.2 89.0 82.0 26.3 26.7 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 27.9 29.6 29.2 2.5 91.7 84.6 26.2 27.0 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 27.9 29.3 27.4 2.4 91.1 84.0 26.0 26.5 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 28.3 29.1 26.8 1.3 81.0 72.6 26.7 27.2 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.2 29.7 26.3 1.8 87.5 77.9 26.5 27.9 28.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 28.0 28.7 27.4 1.4 81.5 73.0 26.3 27.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.3 27.0 1.1 76.1 69.4 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 22.9 24.6 24.8 2.4 91.8 83.8 20.8 21.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 27.9 28.6 28.7 1.7 85.0 76.3 26.3 27.1 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------