***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 26.6 1.0 64.7 59.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.9 25.5 26.8 1.0 61.9 59.1 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.9 25.6 26.8 1.2 65.6 60.8 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 19.1 18.0 25.1 1.0 67.5 60.4 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 26.7 26.3 25.3 1.2 67.7 62.6 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.7 23.5 1.6 74.7 67.1 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 22.4 25.2 26.5 0.9 61.6 58.0 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.6 23.8 1.5 70.8 64.9 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.3 26.3 25.6 1.3 66.8 63.4 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 25.6 25.9 24.4 1.5 69.6 64.7 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 26.3 26.8 25.1 1.5 70.4 65.2 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.1 25.9 25.0 1.5 72.9 65.2 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.5 24.6 1.6 74.6 65.7 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 26.2 25.6 25.3 1.5 65.3 63.1 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 26.4 25.9 25.6 1.0 67.0 61.0 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 26.9 27.3 25.0 1.5 70.7 65.1 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.1 24.9 26.4 1.0 64.0 59.1 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 25.4 24.8 23.6 1.5 69.4 64.1 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.8 25.3 27.0 1.2 63.6 60.5 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.8 20.9 21.5 1.3 68.3 63.3 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.2 26.1 26.3 1.1 65.4 61.1 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.8 25.7 26.6 1.2 64.3 60.9 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 26.5 25.3 26.9 1.4 66.1 62.5 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 26.0 25.7 25.3 1.5 68.0 63.5 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 22.6 25.6 25.2 1.0 65.5 60.3 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 26.0 25.6 24.5 1.3 69.9 63.3 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.6 25.6 25.7 1.0 64.4 59.5 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 26.5 26.1 25.4 1.0 67.9 61.1 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.5 20.3 22.6 1.4 69.2 63.5 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 22.5 25.8 26.9 1.0 63.0 59.1 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------