***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 27.9 1.6 72.4 65.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 27.7 27.9 28.2 1.8 69.8 67.2 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 27.4 27.8 28.3 1.9 72.4 67.7 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 20.6 20.8 26.3 1.2 66.4 62.6 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 28.2 28.4 26.5 1.5 68.9 65.5 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 27.6 27.9 24.4 1.7 72.0 67.0 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 27.2 27.2 27.8 1.6 67.8 65.5 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 17.3 18.1 25.1 1.9 75.5 68.2 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 27.6 28.1 26.9 1.8 72.4 67.6 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 27.8 28.4 25.7 1.9 75.2 68.5 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 28.2 28.5 26.3 1.8 73.7 68.1 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 28.2 28.6 26.2 1.9 74.9 68.2 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 29.0 29.1 25.7 1.8 71.9 67.8 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 27.8 27.9 26.8 2.2 76.0 69.1 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.4 28.5 26.8 1.1 68.5 62.5 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 29.5 29.9 26.0 1.7 72.4 67.1 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 27.0 26.9 27.8 1.8 70.8 67.4 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 26.9 27.2 25.0 2.1 76.5 68.7 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 27.4 27.6 28.5 2.0 73.2 68.7 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.5 23.8 22.9 1.9 72.5 67.1 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 27.6 28.0 27.5 1.6 70.3 65.8 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 27.5 28.1 28.1 2.1 75.1 69.1 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 27.3 28.0 28.4 2.2 77.4 70.0 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 27.1 27.8 26.7 2.1 77.2 69.4 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.6 26.5 1.5 68.1 64.5 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 28.6 28.5 25.7 1.6 68.4 66.1 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.6 27.0 1.5 69.8 64.9 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 28.3 28.5 26.5 1.1 67.8 62.4 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 22.3 22.7 24.0 2.0 74.0 68.2 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 27.5 27.7 28.3 1.8 70.8 66.9 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------