***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 0.0 30.2 2.8 83.8 75.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 30.1 31.5 30.5 3.1 84.3 76.0 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.8 30.8 3.3 87.8 78.4 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.0 25.6 28.6 2.4 82.8 74.6 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 31.1 33.5 29.0 3.0 87.8 77.6 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 30.6 32.5 27.1 3.2 92.7 81.5 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 29.5 30.1 30.0 2.7 82.1 74.2 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 19.4 22.1 27.9 3.6 94.1 81.8 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 30.3 33.2 29.5 3.3 89.6 79.1 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 30.6 33.6 28.5 3.6 92.5 81.2 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 30.9 33.4 29.0 3.5 92.4 81.3 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 30.9 33.1 29.0 3.6 94.0 82.0 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 31.9 33.8 28.5 3.5 93.5 81.9 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 29.6 33.8 29.6 3.9 91.5 81.1 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 31.3 32.4 28.9 2.2 80.0 74.1 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 32.4 34.5 28.7 3.3 91.7 80.6 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 29.2 31.1 30.1 3.0 87.3 76.3 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 29.1 32.7 27.8 3.9 93.4 81.6 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 29.7 31.9 31.0 3.4 88.3 78.3 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 26.0 28.8 25.6 3.6 93.5 81.0 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.5 32.3 30.0 3.0 86.7 76.7 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 29.7 32.0 30.4 3.4 88.9 78.4 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 29.8 33.0 31.1 3.9 92.1 81.0 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 29.7 33.4 29.5 3.9 92.3 81.6 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 30.4 32.1 28.8 2.7 85.2 75.7 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 31.4 33.1 28.4 3.2 91.9 80.4 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 29.9 31.3 29.3 2.7 83.4 75.1 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 31.5 32.4 28.9 2.3 80.1 74.4 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 25.0 27.8 26.8 3.9 93.4 81.0 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 29.8 31.3 30.7 3.1 84.5 76.2 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------