***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 28.6 0.7 68.1 62.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 31.2 31.4 29.3 1.4 75.5 70.0 28.2 30.2 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 31.4 31.5 29.3 1.3 74.3 69.8 28.1 30.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.5 24.0 26.5 0.3 63.3 56.5 21.5 23.1 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 32.0 32.5 27.5 0.8 68.6 62.9 28.5 30.9 31.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 29.5 30.1 24.7 0.6 58.6 58.4 27.9 29.3 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.6 28.5 0.7 67.1 62.8 28.2 29.7 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 19.6 20.2 26.2 1.6 74.3 71.0 16.5 18.4 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 31.4 31.5 28.6 1.3 72.5 69.4 28.0 30.0 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 31.0 31.3 27.1 1.7 75.2 72.5 27.2 29.8 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 31.6 31.8 27.5 1.2 70.5 66.5 27.9 30.6 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 30.8 30.9 27.2 1.5 72.5 68.9 27.5 29.6 30.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 30.6 32.1 27.0 1.3 65.2 65.7 28.8 30.3 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 31.3 31.9 28.9 2.6 86.3 81.8 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 31.1 30.7 27.8 -0.2 50.0 48.8 29.0 30.7 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 31.4 32.9 27.3 1.1 68.3 64.5 29.3 31.1 32.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 30.6 31.0 28.9 1.5 76.9 71.5 27.3 29.2 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 30.0 30.4 26.5 2.2 78.2 77.3 26.9 29.0 29.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 31.1 31.6 29.8 2.0 79.8 76.0 27.6 29.5 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 26.6 27.2 24.4 2.0 78.8 75.8 22.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 30.6 31.2 28.6 0.7 65.8 61.3 27.8 30.3 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 31.5 32.1 29.5 2.2 81.0 78.1 27.8 29.8 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 31.0 31.4 30.3 2.6 84.4 81.9 27.6 30.2 30.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.4 28.3 2.1 79.4 77.8 27.1 29.2 30.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 30.5 30.5 26.9 0.1 57.1 53.2 28.3 30.1 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 30.5 31.4 26.5 1.2 64.4 64.4 28.0 30.2 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 30.4 30.3 27.5 0.2 59.0 55.6 28.1 30.0 31.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 31.3 31.6 27.1 0.1 56.6 53.1 29.0 30.9 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 25.9 26.5 25.8 2.3 80.7 78.8 22.4 24.4 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 31.1 31.3 29.2 1.1 72.1 67.0 27.9 30.0 30.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------