***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 17.0 0.6 73.4 64.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.6 17.0 0.5 70.1 63.1 13.8 14.1 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.2 17.2 0.8 76.9 69.4 15.8 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.8 14.8 0.1 54.6 53.5 11.2 11.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.1 14.9 0.4 67.6 61.5 12.3 12.5 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.2 13.1 0.4 63.8 61.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.8 16.9 0.4 67.2 60.8 13.9 14.5 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 7.8 8.0 13.3 0.6 74.4 67.0 7.0 7.4 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.4 14.4 15.5 0.7 75.7 68.9 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.3 13.9 0.6 74.1 67.5 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.8 14.0 14.6 0.5 71.4 65.5 13.0 13.3 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.2 14.1 0.7 74.1 67.7 11.1 11.8 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.1 13.3 13.6 0.6 75.4 67.5 12.3 12.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 15.1 15.3 15.7 1.0 81.8 75.0 13.8 14.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 15.8 0.2 55.0 54.4 14.4 15.1 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 14.8 14.9 14.3 0.6 70.8 65.0 13.9 14.3 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.0 16.5 0.4 68.3 62.5 14.1 14.7 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.8 12.9 13.1 0.7 75.7 69.3 11.7 12.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 14.5 14.7 17.2 0.8 77.6 69.6 13.9 14.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 8.6 8.8 11.5 0.6 73.4 66.5 7.8 8.3 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.0 13.9 16.4 0.5 73.8 65.0 13.3 13.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.0 14.4 16.8 0.7 79.1 69.8 13.2 13.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 14.0 14.2 17.3 1.2 85.0 78.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 14.6 14.9 15.4 0.9 80.9 73.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 14.4 14.3 15.6 0.4 69.8 60.8 13.6 14.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 13.3 13.4 13.6 0.6 71.4 66.7 12.3 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.6 16.2 0.4 70.8 61.4 14.0 14.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.7 15.2 0.1 52.6 52.7 12.2 12.7 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.3 12.6 0.8 79.1 71.0 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.9 15.0 17.2 0.5 71.5 63.9 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------