***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 15.9 0.8 67.7 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.9 12.8 15.8 0.6 68.7 58.9 10.2 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.6 15.9 0.8 70.5 62.0 12.5 13.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.1 13.7 0.4 63.0 56.3 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.7 11.4 13.6 0.6 65.5 58.8 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.6 11.9 0.7 65.4 60.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.9 15.7 0.6 69.0 59.0 10.9 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 6.0 12.1 0.7 66.1 61.7 3.7 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.9 14.1 0.8 68.7 61.9 10.7 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.6 12.6 0.8 66.0 61.9 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.3 13.3 0.8 68.1 61.6 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.9 12.9 0.8 69.3 63.0 9.0 10.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.6 12.2 0.8 68.4 62.3 10.1 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.7 14.3 0.9 70.1 63.7 11.4 12.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.3 14.6 0.6 64.6 59.4 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.8 12.9 0.7 66.0 61.0 11.2 12.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.6 13.2 15.2 0.5 66.3 57.2 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.7 11.9 0.8 68.0 62.4 9.9 10.5 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.5 15.9 0.7 69.4 60.5 10.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.6 10.4 0.6 64.8 59.6 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.1 15.1 0.7 66.8 60.3 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.7 15.4 0.7 67.3 59.3 10.8 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 12.4 13.0 15.8 0.9 69.4 63.3 10.4 10.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.1 14.0 0.9 72.1 63.6 10.8 12.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.0 14.4 0.7 65.4 60.9 10.7 11.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.6 12.4 0.6 65.7 60.2 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 12.8 12.7 15.1 0.8 68.9 61.5 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.2 14.0 0.4 62.9 57.2 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 10.5 10.4 11.4 0.8 66.9 61.9 7.8 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.5 16.0 0.7 69.6 60.2 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------