***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 0.5 56.8 56.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.6 16.7 0.4 54.2 54.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.2 16.8 0.6 60.2 58.1 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 9.3 10.8 14.5 0.0 46.3 49.2 10.4 11.2 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.4 14.5 0.2 50.2 52.7 11.5 12.4 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.0 12.9 0.5 61.4 57.1 10.5 11.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.1 16.6 0.3 54.4 53.7 12.9 13.9 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 7.4 7.7 13.0 0.5 60.0 57.8 5.6 6.9 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.9 15.0 0.5 55.9 57.2 12.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.8 13.4 0.5 57.0 56.7 12.6 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 13.4 13.6 14.2 0.5 57.6 56.6 12.1 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.3 13.9 0.6 62.4 58.9 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 11.6 13.5 13.1 0.4 63.3 56.8 11.2 12.7 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.5 15.0 15.1 0.7 61.6 58.4 13.3 14.2 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.9 15.0 15.4 0.2 48.3 53.0 13.8 15.0 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.7 13.8 0.4 58.5 55.3 12.9 14.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.9 16.1 0.1 51.1 52.4 13.2 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.4 12.7 0.5 58.0 56.9 10.8 12.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.9 16.8 0.6 57.4 57.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.6 11.3 0.5 57.3 57.1 7.2 8.3 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 12.0 13.6 16.0 0.5 55.5 56.5 12.1 13.0 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.7 16.2 0.4 57.5 55.7 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.9 16.7 0.8 62.4 60.7 12.1 13.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 14.3 14.9 0.7 60.6 58.3 12.9 13.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.1 15.3 0.4 57.1 55.8 12.8 13.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.4 13.3 0.5 58.0 57.1 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.9 16.0 0.5 57.8 56.4 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.9 12.2 14.9 0.0 45.9 49.9 11.6 12.3 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.5 11.7 12.2 0.6 59.8 57.5 9.8 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.2 16.9 0.4 57.0 55.9 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------