***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 19.1 2.0 84.5 75.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 16.1 17.1 19.1 1.9 82.5 74.5 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 18.6 19.2 19.2 2.2 85.9 77.8 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 14.2 14.6 16.6 1.1 73.9 67.1 11.8 13.3 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.4 16.7 1.5 78.9 72.4 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.5 14.8 1.3 75.9 70.3 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.9 18.9 1.7 76.5 72.7 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.5 10.3 15.2 1.9 85.3 76.8 7.5 8.1 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.1 16.8 17.4 1.9 85.1 77.2 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 15.3 16.2 15.7 1.8 84.7 76.4 13.9 14.6 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 15.0 15.5 16.4 1.8 82.7 76.0 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.6 16.1 1.9 84.9 78.3 11.6 12.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.5 15.3 1.6 80.0 75.2 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 16.4 17.4 17.6 2.3 89.0 80.9 14.3 15.2 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.4 17.3 1.2 71.8 68.5 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.3 16.0 1.5 79.8 74.0 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.9 17.6 18.5 1.8 81.1 73.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.7 15.1 1.9 87.2 77.7 12.0 12.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 16.4 17.4 19.3 2.2 87.9 77.5 14.1 14.9 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 9.7 10.5 13.4 1.8 86.1 75.2 8.4 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.7 18.3 1.9 80.9 76.5 13.7 14.5 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 15.4 16.4 18.7 2.0 86.1 76.5 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 15.7 17.3 19.3 2.5 91.4 80.9 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 15.8 17.1 17.3 2.2 89.1 80.1 14.1 14.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.5 16.2 17.4 1.7 79.5 74.1 13.6 14.4 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 14.5 14.8 15.4 1.6 78.6 75.0 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.9 18.2 1.8 82.4 74.5 14.1 14.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 13.9 13.9 16.8 1.0 72.8 66.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 13.8 14.9 14.4 1.9 85.8 77.8 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.6 19.3 1.9 81.8 75.0 14.5 15.2 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------