***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.2 -1.1 31.8 31.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 14.2 15.0 16.3 -0.9 32.8 33.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 16.9 17.4 16.8 -0.6 38.1 39.9 17.3 17.7 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 12.3 11.9 14.5 -1.0 26.7 31.1 12.6 14.3 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 13.0 13.2 14.9 -0.7 32.4 35.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 12.3 12.2 12.9 -0.8 31.1 34.1 12.5 13.4 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 14.8 15.4 16.4 -1.0 32.7 32.7 15.4 15.9 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.8 8.1 12.9 -0.6 33.2 36.1 8.1 8.7 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.4 14.9 15.5 -0.5 39.0 39.5 14.7 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 14.6 14.5 13.7 -0.5 36.7 37.6 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 14.0 14.1 14.4 -0.8 31.2 32.5 14.2 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 12.1 12.5 13.6 -0.7 32.2 34.5 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.7 14.0 -0.2 41.3 43.9 13.4 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.8 15.8 0.0 50.1 50.7 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 15.3 15.2 15.8 -1.1 24.9 27.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.5 14.5 -0.4 38.1 39.9 15.3 15.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 15.3 15.8 16.0 -0.8 34.3 35.8 15.8 16.2 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.8 12.8 -0.4 34.8 38.1 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 15.1 15.3 16.8 -0.4 44.1 43.4 15.1 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 8.7 9.2 10.8 -0.5 34.7 36.3 9.2 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 14.2 14.0 16.1 -0.9 30.2 32.1 14.3 15.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.7 16.9 -0.1 50.3 48.3 14.3 14.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.1 17.4 0.4 63.0 59.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.4 15.3 -0.1 45.5 47.2 14.6 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 14.2 14.8 15.1 -1.3 27.9 27.6 15.0 15.6 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.6 13.5 -0.2 41.9 44.9 14.2 14.7 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 14.3 15.2 15.4 -1.3 27.1 27.0 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.2 -1.0 26.6 29.5 13.3 13.9 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.9 12.5 -0.2 45.7 45.8 12.3 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 15.0 15.3 16.6 -0.9 33.3 34.2 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------