***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 26.2 47.8 38.2 98.4 56.4 49.1 20.7 44.9 58.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 39.5 45.4 38.5 101.3 59.7 51.7 22.4 33.2 59.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 30.2 47.7 37.8 97.4 56.4 48.3 27.8 43.1 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 35.0 52.3 32.5 88.9 57.9 44.6 36.0 47.0 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.1 41.7 30.1 85.9 54.7 44.8 18.8 37.3 51.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 25.5 47.5 34.4 89.5 56.1 44.8 22.2 39.8 58.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 42.7 39.1 38.4 100.8 58.2 51.0 21.2 36.0 49.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 50.3 65.5 32.6 80.9 47.5 41.4 52.0 66.8 88.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 26.1 39.5 32.6 88.2 53.4 44.2 28.9 37.9 48.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 33.5 46.4 36.4 84.6 49.5 42.5 36.8 47.2 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 25.2 38.9 26.9 81.0 50.0 42.4 23.8 38.9 50.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 25.7 41.0 24.7 79.8 50.3 41.7 31.8 40.5 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.4 43.8 28.8 90.6 56.3 46.2 27.1 40.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 57.9 55.1 47.3 95.6 55.7 48.3 40.6 49.5 66.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 14.8 34.8 27.9 88.9 58.8 43.7 13.1 24.2 43.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 25.3 43.4 27.3 84.9 54.7 44.3 35.3 42.1 49.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.4 47.2 40.9 106.1 63.4 54.8 24.8 43.2 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 31.0 48.2 44.2 89.8 52.4 44.2 36.5 46.5 54.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 45.2 49.0 38.5 100.1 58.8 51.2 23.1 38.7 55.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 40.4 54.9 44.6 89.9 50.6 45.4 42.9 54.6 64.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 44.4 37.6 34.6 92.6 55.7 46.7 23.8 34.5 65.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 47.9 50.9 42.1 104.2 63.1 54.3 32.2 43.1 53.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 49.1 51.5 39.0 99.0 57.6 50.5 23.8 41.3 62.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 57.5 54.1 42.3 93.6 54.9 46.3 38.2 50.1 66.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 23.8 42.9 38.6 94.6 57.4 47.4 21.6 34.5 49.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.5 28.3 23.2 81.8 50.9 43.2 23.2 27.8 37.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 26.5 46.4 39.7 96.0 55.4 47.9 20.1 40.1 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.6 34.9 29.3 87.1 58.7 43.8 20.5 33.8 37.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 47.3 66.4 46.1 90.4 51.9 44.6 56.5 65.7 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 25.9 42.2 38.3 100.1 58.6 50.3 22.6 36.3 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------