***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 8.3 10.0 88.7 64.1 47.9 0.0 1.8 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.5 5.3 8.8 79.7 59.7 46.9 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.7 9.8 86.7 63.0 47.6 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 21.1 10.1 84.7 67.5 49.4 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.6 16.6 9.2 81.0 66.9 47.9 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.6 11.1 91.6 64.8 46.9 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 8.3 9.1 82.4 61.0 45.2 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 24.3 10.1 86.4 60.6 45.7 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.9 17.1 9.9 83.3 64.3 46.1 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.3 11.1 85.3 60.9 46.7 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 14.6 8.1 79.9 63.9 47.2 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.2 15.4 7.7 83.2 63.6 47.3 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.4 19.2 9.4 90.1 67.7 49.1 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 15.5 12.9 90.4 63.6 49.2 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 0.9 5.6 7.4 73.8 65.2 46.9 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.9 8.3 79.1 66.0 48.1 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.2 9.7 9.3 86.6 62.3 46.2 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 16.0 12.9 87.1 58.7 46.8 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.3 8.9 81.2 60.9 47.7 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 20.5 13.5 90.6 57.9 44.7 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.0 10.6 9.9 85.1 64.0 48.3 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.6 12.7 9.7 86.0 61.4 47.5 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.8 9.6 88.1 63.1 48.3 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.5 15.0 11.9 88.9 62.9 47.8 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.3 11.3 10.7 89.7 64.4 47.8 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.1 12.6 8.1 94.8 70.1 47.5 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.5 8.7 10.6 90.2 64.0 47.4 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 11.8 8.9 78.2 66.0 47.1 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 19.9 13.1 86.9 58.8 46.0 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.1 9.2 81.9 60.3 46.6 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------