***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.8 9.4 86.6 65.2 47.2 6.8 8.5 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 14.0 9.2 90.1 64.4 47.2 3.8 5.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 6.0 18.7 9.2 86.0 63.6 44.4 4.1 14.2 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 20.1 8.2 91.2 66.0 44.7 3.9 8.5 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.3 14.5 6.9 79.8 62.6 41.8 4.3 10.1 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.7 15.9 8.4 92.9 64.4 45.8 2.5 9.9 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.2 9.1 89.4 63.4 47.6 2.6 5.8 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.7 21.6 7.1 72.2 59.2 44.9 7.4 20.0 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.7 12.3 7.6 81.3 61.4 38.3 5.3 7.7 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.9 15.9 8.5 78.4 59.6 42.7 6.9 12.6 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.4 15.2 5.5 69.3 60.1 43.7 5.5 10.8 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 17.2 5.3 72.9 64.7 46.6 2.5 9.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.1 30.2 6.3 83.5 69.3 47.1 2.3 7.6 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.5 14.6 10.4 78.3 57.2 43.6 9.6 14.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.0 7.7 7.5 101.0 71.8 44.1 0.6 2.6 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.3 24.3 6.0 79.3 66.3 45.9 1.3 10.7 24.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 6.4 14.5 8.3 76.9 60.3 45.5 6.7 11.6 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.3 13.8 11.0 89.0 60.8 44.2 6.7 12.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.6 8.9 86.2 63.1 45.8 5.9 8.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.0 17.4 10.4 86.5 59.2 45.3 12.2 15.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.6 19.0 8.6 87.2 66.2 42.2 3.9 6.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.9 12.1 8.6 75.9 59.1 44.1 6.6 9.5 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.2 8.8 83.3 62.9 46.0 4.8 8.4 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.5 20.4 10.2 84.9 61.9 43.4 4.5 9.5 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.6 18.3 9.7 91.3 67.5 45.3 3.4 8.3 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.2 19.8 4.7 75.0 67.2 47.1 3.0 8.5 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.4 14.8 9.5 84.5 64.0 45.5 2.9 11.5 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.0 15.5 7.7 95.4 68.0 43.9 0.6 4.9 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 9.0 23.9 11.5 90.0 60.6 43.3 12.8 19.4 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.6 9.9 97.3 65.9 47.8 3.6 8.0 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------