***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 0.7 6.8 8.6 113.5 70.7 46.1 0.1 2.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.4 11.8 7.9 103.3 69.1 49.1 1.1 5.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 12.2 8.5 100.9 66.5 46.2 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.1 17.7 8.6 112.7 70.4 40.9 0.1 5.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 0.6 5.9 7.6 102.9 67.8 44.3 0.7 1.4 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 0.8 6.7 7.2 77.8 61.3 39.8 0.4 2.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.8 12.7 8.4 113.7 70.8 50.9 0.3 4.4 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 3.5 17.5 7.0 79.3 62.5 41.6 2.9 8.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 0.9 8.3 7.4 93.3 65.9 42.0 0.1 2.6 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.6 10.0 7.8 86.5 64.8 43.5 0.2 3.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 0.8 5.9 6.9 88.5 64.4 40.4 0.3 2.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 0.7 6.4 5.8 79.9 62.5 40.0 0.0 1.6 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 0.7 7.2 6.8 98.3 68.2 41.7 0.0 2.0 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.3 17.3 10.4 99.1 67.0 45.3 3.4 7.9 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.4 11.8 8.6 125.9 75.3 42.6 0.1 1.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.2 5.6 6.6 93.1 67.1 38.4 0.8 3.5 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 14.6 7.8 97.8 67.9 48.1 1.2 4.4 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 1.9 7.4 8.6 79.7 60.4 43.4 1.3 4.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 11.8 8.1 102.5 68.3 47.6 2.0 5.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.9 9.1 80.8 60.4 42.8 0.4 9.5 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.3 8.9 7.9 101.0 68.3 44.2 1.1 3.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 14.7 8.1 95.0 66.2 48.0 1.6 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.0 15.1 9.2 112.0 70.4 49.5 1.7 7.5 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.2 11.2 8.8 88.4 62.9 43.6 1.0 5.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.2 8.7 10.0 122.5 72.7 45.9 0.9 3.0 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.3 6.5 6.1 82.9 65.7 43.2 0.0 2.9 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.2 13.7 10.1 122.0 73.6 47.2 2.4 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 0.4 9.7 7.4 110.8 71.6 39.8 0.0 1.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.4 14.8 8.8 75.5 57.6 41.8 0.9 9.2 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.1 10.0 8.3 108.7 69.7 49.1 0.7 4.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------