***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.1 10.7 10.2 111.9 70.8 54.9 0.3 2.8 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.2 12.4 12.7 138.4 72.3 62.4 0.5 2.8 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.2 11.2 10.3 123.3 73.6 57.4 1.0 2.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.0 5.6 69.8 59.9 46.6 0.8 1.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.5 2.9 6.5 84.4 66.8 51.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 0.6 5.3 7.7 96.7 67.4 46.4 0.0 1.3 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 4.2 7.7 11.7 125.2 70.4 61.7 0.6 2.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.2 8.4 85.6 62.6 49.5 2.6 6.6 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 4.8 7.0 7.8 98.6 66.7 52.2 0.8 2.8 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.2 14.1 8.9 89.5 62.7 49.9 0.1 5.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 3.4 5.4 6.4 88.6 67.5 52.3 0.0 1.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.6 5.9 83.4 64.0 48.8 0.0 0.8 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.4 4.3 6.3 91.3 68.8 49.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.9 13.5 119.0 69.2 55.7 5.7 9.7 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 0.8 4.7 4.4 62.0 67.6 45.0 0.1 1.8 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 1.8 1.9 6.4 91.6 68.2 50.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.4 10.8 15.5 172.9 78.8 69.8 0.6 1.6 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 11.4 11.7 104.7 62.2 51.7 1.2 4.3 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.9 7.9 12.7 135.7 72.5 61.0 1.6 3.4 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 9.1 11.6 104.2 64.8 53.2 2.6 4.3 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.5 11.5 8.2 102.0 69.7 53.5 0.1 4.4 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 7.3 11.4 15.7 169.7 78.4 67.2 0.7 1.6 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 5.2 9.3 11.4 117.5 69.9 57.7 1.1 3.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.2 14.2 11.5 115.8 67.9 55.7 2.4 10.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.9 8.1 81.4 64.4 49.8 1.2 4.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.9 3.8 4.3 69.8 67.2 46.6 0.0 1.8 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 7.1 9.5 94.7 64.9 51.6 1.0 3.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.3 4.5 5.3 70.2 63.3 45.9 0.6 2.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.5 10.6 12.7 112.4 65.9 52.7 2.2 5.4 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.5 12.4 11.0 118.7 70.6 58.3 1.5 2.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------