***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 28.1 28.3 28.9 1.2 69.7 67.0 26.3 27.3 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 27.5 28.0 28.5 0.9 65.9 62.6 26.4 27.3 28.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 28.0 28.1 29.2 1.2 69.3 66.7 26.7 27.1 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 21.6 22.3 27.3 2.0 83.1 77.7 19.5 20.8 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 29.0 29.1 27.5 1.2 71.8 67.9 26.8 28.0 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 27.9 28.5 25.7 1.8 82.0 77.0 26.1 27.2 27.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.6 28.3 0.8 65.0 61.8 26.2 27.1 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.6 26.1 1.4 73.5 69.4 15.4 16.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.6 28.1 1.5 74.1 70.3 26.6 27.4 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 28.2 28.7 26.8 1.7 77.0 72.7 26.3 26.9 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 28.0 28.3 27.6 0.9 66.5 63.5 26.5 27.7 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 28.0 28.3 27.4 1.1 69.4 66.1 25.8 27.2 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 29.1 28.9 27.2 1.2 68.7 66.7 27.0 28.2 28.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.7 26.8 0.7 64.2 60.9 26.2 27.2 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 29.1 29.6 29.2 1.9 80.0 76.0 27.2 28.0 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 29.7 29.6 27.4 1.2 70.3 67.6 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.1 28.0 0.8 65.8 61.9 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 27.2 27.5 25.8 1.5 76.9 71.0 25.7 26.2 27.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 27.2 27.6 28.7 0.9 65.3 62.6 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 23.7 24.1 23.7 1.4 75.7 70.4 21.7 22.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 28.5 28.2 28.6 1.3 71.3 68.2 26.7 27.3 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 27.2 27.8 28.0 0.8 65.3 62.4 26.3 26.9 27.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 27.4 27.5 28.7 0.8 63.2 61.1 26.2 27.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 27.7 27.9 27.4 1.2 71.2 66.7 26.1 26.7 27.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 28.3 28.5 27.5 1.3 71.1 68.4 26.7 27.4 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.8 27.5 1.7 78.5 73.7 26.8 27.9 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.0 28.1 1.2 70.9 68.0 26.3 27.3 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 29.3 29.9 28.2 2.0 82.1 77.4 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 22.9 23.2 24.9 1.3 75.0 69.3 20.8 21.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 27.3 27.8 28.7 1.0 66.3 63.6 26.4 27.1 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------